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Computer simulation has long been an essential partner of ultrafast experiments, allowing the assignment of microscopic mechanistic detail to low-dimensional spectroscopic data. However, the ability of theory to make a priori predictions of ultrafast experimental results is relatively untested. Herein, as a part of a community challenge, we attempt to predict the signal of an upcoming ultrafast photochemical experiment using state-of-the-art theory in the context of preexisting experimental data. Specifically, we employ ab initio Ehrenfest with collapse to a block mixed quantum–classical simulations to describe the real-time evolution of the electrons and nuclei of cyclobutanone following excitation to the 3s Rydberg state. The gas-phase ultrafast electron diffraction (GUED) signal is simulated for direct comparison to an upcoming experiment at the Stanford Linear Accelerator Laboratory. Following initial ring-opening, dissociation via two distinct channels is observed: the C3 dissociation channel, producing cyclopropane and CO, and the C2 channel, producing CH2CO and C2H4. Direct calculations of the GUED signal indicate how the ring-opened intermediate, the C2 products, and the C3 products can be discriminated in the GUED signal. We also report an a priori analysis of anticipated errors in our predictions: without knowledge of the experimental result, which features of the spectrum do we feel confident we have predicted correctly, and which might we have wrong? 

We report a significant Stokes shift enhancement in near-infrared fluorescing cyanines as a result of C4′-substitution with cyclic or acyclic amines. Based on a combined experimental and density functional study, a simple strategy for optimizing the Stokes shift is proposed. By tuning the relative energies of cyanine-like and bis-dipolar conformers, differing in the rotational angle of the amine substituent, it is possible to develop molecules that undergo conformational change upon excitation, resulting in a predictable Stokes shift.